Vandenberg Political Strategies - Fall of the Aviator?

Aerospace Engineer and Republican Assemblyman Paul
DiGaetano’s flight to New Jersey’s 2005 gubernatorial race may
be doomed to a crash landing. In fact it is a question on
whether DiGaetano’s campaign ever took flight in the first place.

In a crowded primary field, it is hard not to take an eight-term
Assemblyman and former Republican Majority Leader seriously,
but for all of that, Mr. Digaetano seems to be crashing into
“Arianna Huffington” territory (if you don’t understand the
reference look at the returns for the California special election), in
terms of political candidates. This is despite statewide events that
favor candidates needing a come-from-behind win. Included in
this are the two front runners, Doug Forrester and Bret Schundler,
seem to be intent on keeping very low profiles, while the rest of
the pack fights it out. This combined with the fact that the New
Jersey GOP lacks statewide facilities to ensure a central party
message is backed by all the candidates (which would surely
favor candidates with broad appeal and state party support),
means that DiGaetano could have shown actual progress and
developed endorsements. This is exactly what has been done
by DiGaetano’s rival, John Murphy, who progressed into a
credible threat to both Schundler and Forrester.

Furthermore, DiGaetano’s inaction has only hastened the tailspin
caused by political events that all seem to be almost entirely to
his detriment. Foremost is the brewing political struggle in Passaic
County between the newly formed Republican reform
movement and DiGaetano’s long-time ally Passaic County GOP
Chairman Mike Mecca.
Passaic County was to be a tactical bulwark for DiGaetano, but
with Mecca embroiled in a full blown political war with the
opposition led by DiGaetano’s former assembly colleague Frank
Catania, this makes Passaic County fair game. The potential
political embarrassment of the impending Passaic County
showdown is only made worse by the fact that Essex County
Chairman and fellow Assemblyman Kevin O’Toole is reluctant to
back DiGaetano and Bergen County is sharply divided. If that is
not enough to crash his campaign, DiGaetano must also
contend with his faltering allies looking to other primary
candidates, like aforementioned Mike Mecca who traveled to
Jacksonville to attend Bob Schroeder’s Superbowl Sunday event.

In fact, despite his best efforts, the only good news that
DiGaetano can come up with is his success in two non-binding
straw polls. That the only good news that DiGaetano could
generate is over two straw polls should be a signal that his
campaign is depressurizing. Straw polls are merely party
indicators that rarely have any bearing on the general voting
public even in primaries. This combined with the fact that one of
the polls was in his home area of Essex County and that he
barely won by four votes. The second straw poll was in
Gloucester County… March of 2004, not exactly a period when
even party faithful where thinking seriously about a gubernatorial
race over a year away. In fact, a purely whimsical part of me
wants to know who else was in to poll.

With all of this, both of his own making and beyond his control,
weighing DiGaetano down its no wonder that his campaign
never took off. In fact at this point it is not a question of if, but
when DiGaetano’s campaign crashes. DiGaetano dropping out
could actually be more significant to other candidates than if he
stayed in the race. While in the race he is without momentum
and with a tapped-out fundraising base. Out of the race his
support in areas could elevate John Murphy or Bob Schroeder
further developing their momentum and allow him and his
supporters to save face. In Essex County, it could cement the
county’s influence in both future state wide and federal
campaigns. His dropping out is even more important in Passaic
County, potentially his support behind another candidate could
allow the reformists and the old guard to negotiate a power
sharing arrangement without any side losing face. Granted,
events shifting in Passaic County due to this are a long shot, there
are too many strong personalities on either side but for the good
of the party both sides should consider mediation. Ultimately,
DiGaetano’s campaign failure in the primary could ensure the
GOP better position in the general election.

Alexi Vandenberg is the Senior Strategist of Vandenberg Political
Strategies, he can be contacted at alexi@vandenberg-
strategies.com or 484-868-1447.