Vandenberg Political Strategies

Since the day he succeeded Bob Edgar, it often appeared the only person who posed a threat to Curt Weldon’s seat in
the 7th District was Curt Weldon. If the uber-entrenched Republican were ever to go down in flames, some theorized it
would take more than a credible and well-funded opponent.

"A loss by Curt Weldon can only be self-inflicted," Democratic political consultant Larry Ceisler said in the summer of
2004. "The opponent doesn’t matter. The external factors don’t matter."

Clearly President Bush’s poll numbers, Iraq and the FBI probe of Weldon’s work on behalf of clients of his daughter’s
lobbying firm mattered a lot in 2006, but there are some who still believe Joe Sestak’s chances would have been
supermodel-thin without a lot of help from the incumbent and a clumsy campaign.

"Even with the FBI investigation, I think it was winnable," said Republican political strategist Alexi Vandenberg, president
of Drexel Hill-based Vandenberg Political Strategies. "The investigation was the thing that put Sestak over the top, but
there were a lotof missteps before that which really hurt Weldon."

A former teacher, volunteer fire chief, mayor of Marcus Hook and chairman of county council, Weldon, according to
Vandenberg, had the resume to run a mostly-positive campaign and exploit his hometown edge over Sestak.

Instead, the 10-term congressman started his re-election campaign touching on where Sestak’s daughter received her
cancer treatment, his opponent’s residency, and his alleged ties to Enron and former Clinton national security adviser
Sandy Berger.

Perhaps most ineffective were Weldon’s attacks on Sestak’s 31-year military record and claims that he was "fired from
the Navy."

"I think he raised Sestak’s profile early on and gave him things to talk about," said Vandenberg. "On top of that, he ran
a national race in a local election. As much as Weldon enjoys international relations and being the congressional
ambassador to the world, he needed to focus on local issues and why he should be the one representing the 7th
District."

While Sestak was talking about a "tragic misadventure" in Iraq, Weldon was hyping the discovery of pre-Gulf War
munitions, saying the "WMDs" vindicated the president’s decision to got to war. He also fiercely defended his Able
Danger theory -- the claim that a military intelligence program identified Sept. 11, 2001 hijackers prior to the attacks --
even after the Pentagon report said it had no merit.

"Curt was a terrific county councilman and a terrific young congressman but, at some point, he decided to turn his
attention to the international scene," said Upper Darby Republican Party Chairman John McNichol. "After a while, he
could rattle off the names of more people than I’ve ever heard of ..and I think some voters feel he got detached from
Delaware County."

In addition to his usual work on behalf of his constituents in the 7th District, Weldon became increasingly engrossed with
international affairs, national defense and nuclear proliferation the longer he served in Washington.

Always front and center on issues concerning U.S. relations with Russia, Weldon also led congressional delegations to
North Korea, Libya and Iraq and wrote a book, "Countdown to Terror," which ripped the post-9/11 American intelligence
community and claimed Iran was the likely source for the next terrorist attack on American soil.

"In a addition to his stance on the war, I think Weldon’s globetrotting and constant conspiratorial theorizing turned a lot
of people off," Ceisler said Wednesday. "In the end, I think he was caught flat-footed and those early mistakes showed
he was unprepared for a competent and well-funded challenger."

Like Ceisler, McNichol does not believe it was Weldon’s foray into foreign affairs or his campaign miscues that cost him
his seat.

"It was a Democratic year," McNichol said. "You can see that looking at the other two races in suburban counties and
nationally ..Curt was, in truth, slightly ahead before (the FBI raid), but after that all came down it was over."

Delaware County Democratic Party Chairman Cliff Wilson said Weldon showed a lot of rust in his first competitive race in
more than 20 years.

"Under pressure, he turned out not to be as good a candidate as people thought," Wilson said."There is tremendous
respect for the military in the district -- especially for career military people -- and I don’t think Curt helped himself by
(attacking) Sestak’s record."

But Wilson said the incumbent probably would have struggled even with a perfect campaign and no problems with the
FBI.

"They were factors but they were not the deciding factors," he said. "The widespread geographical strength of Sestak -
this was not a case of pockets (of votes) - leads me to believe he would have won even without the (FBI) scandal and
Weldon’s missteps.

"Those things may have been the difference between a 52-48 race and what we saw, but even if you remove Weldon’s
problems, you still would have had the biography and character of Joe Sestak and the negative feelings toward the
president and the war in Iraq."

Vandenberg said Weldon’s loss coupled with the county GOP’s showing in recent presidential elections is an indication
Republicans need to do some serious tinkering.

"I think the party needs to redesign itself in a radical way and the leadership needs to broaden from a select few who
have been here for a lifetime," he said. "They need to loosen up the reins and give young Republican groups and new
candidates a voice at the table."

©DelcoTimes 2006